Market Update

Setting the Table for Q4: Interest Rates, Oil, the Midterms and the AI Rally

By Corey HinklePublished October 1, 2026

The short answer

Corey Hinkle's Q4 preview names two things the market needs: interest rates that stop climbing, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.3%, and moderating oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict. He sees midterm elections and seasonality as possible tailwinds, and says the AI rally needs earnings like Micron's to keep coming.

Full video transcript

Let's look at a little preview of Q4 with today the first day of October being a good day to kind of preview that and think about what is to come for the rest of the year. Uh before I begin, I must remind us this is a financial education presentation. You must do your own due diligence before acting on anything you hear in this presentation. More disclaimer information can be found on Ankerstar Wealth.com. The opinions expressed are mine alone. So let's talk we'll talk market. We'll talk S&P 500. We're going to talk interest rates. We'll talk oil, we'll talk AI, and then uh we'll talk midterms as well. So, kind of just a preview of Q4 and what to expect, what we'd like to see, what we will maybe likely see. Uh for today though, we do have the S&P 500 down just a bit as uh interest rates continue their path higher here. Now, let's start here. In Q4, we're going to at this point at 5.3% on the 10-year, we're going to need to see these interest rates chill out a bit. Um, at the very least, stop going higher at some point in Q4. If we're if we're heading higher, even slowly through all of Q4, that's going to be that's going to become really tough. Uh now, okay, I mean, do we battle does inflation data come in better than expected? That would be nice. Uh but regardless of everything else, we're going to need these interest rates to at least chill out a bit. Uh if we're going to get the market to continue higher on the oil side, oil heading higher today, too. We're going to need a lot of clarity around the the drama in the Middle East. We're going to need to have a light at the end of that tunnel. We're going to need to see progress um and and see some moderating oil prices if if we're going to get the market to continue higher. These interest rates and oil prices, which sometimes move together, are going to have to help us out a bit. uh if we see continued pressure there or or you know continued escalations um as it relates to the conflict there that's just that's going to be a really big headwind in Q4. Now here's one thing I do expect in Q4. I think the political pressure on the administration to make meaningful progress with that conflict is going to be ramped up significantly in Q4. I think the uh I don't know what you'd call it, but whatever leash that the administration had or felt that they had with kind of dragging their feet there, I think that that's going to be um that's going to come to an end pretty quickly. So, I think sometime in Q4 we would expect to see, if you want to call it a taco, like chickening out or whatever, uh I think you'd expect to see something along those lines. um if if you're going to get the market to continue higher. So, and I do think that's going to be in the administration's best interest. I think they're going to be pushing for that. So, those are a few things. We've got interest rates, oil tied into the conflict of the Middle East to an extent. I do think you're going to see an attempt at meaningful progress there in the Middle East in Q4. Also, in Q4, you've got the midterm elections. Uh, I'm not going to be the expert there on what are the main political talking points for for what you expect as a result of those elections. Um, but I do know that sometimes those can be clearing events where once you get past them, the clouds part a little bit and you can get uh, you know, some some more confidence from investors out there. Q4 is also tends to be a strong period in the market. Uh it which culminates with the Santa Claus rally there at the end of December and the first few days of January. So people do typically feel feel bullish during that time. You have kind of have the wind at your back historically through that time period in the market and you'd expect to see more of that uh this year. I mean that's your base case. We're in a bull market, you know, heading into Q4, that's a strong period of the year. Not so much with October, but as you get into November, December, that's a strong period of the year. And, uh, you know, you'd expect that again. Why not? Um, so we could end the year strong from that standpoint, from a seasonality standpoint. Last thing on the AI rally, we got Micron's earnings yesterday. Look at these numbers. This is crazy. revenue of 54 billion, 41 billion in the prior quarter. So you're up 13 billion quarter over quarter and 11 billion a year ago. So from 11 billion to 54 billion. That is insane. Um net income, gap net income of 30, we'll call it 38 billion in the quarter is unbelievable. You do have Micron stock down 3% today on this news. So, uh, as a thanks for all their hard work, they get it down 3%. But these numbers are just like otherworldly here. Talking about the AI rally in Q4, we're going to need these numbers to keep hitting just like this. So, Micron did their job. You know, all these companies need to deliver over and over and over. We're going to need to maybe even see that Anthropic IPO hit and we're going to need to see investors very react very positively to that. We're going to need to see Anthropic's revenue continue to ramp and accelerate. Um they're going to need to probably 10x their revenue over the next two to three years, you know, to fulfill all of the commitments that they've made to all the the hyperscalers, right? who are adding capacity, all that. Uh even on the chip chip side as well. So, we're going to need to see Anthropic continue to thrive in Q4 and hopefully they will with that IPO at some point there in the in the quarter. Let me think if there's one other thing I wanted to say about Micron here. Oh, on Micron specifically, you know, look, the thing is worth 1.2 trillion. Okay, they just printed 40 I mean 38 billion of net income in a quarter. So investors look at this like they investors tend to think oh with a micron you know you're probably going to get a big crash you know when when things slow down. So can they print 1 trillion of net income before a crash? Um, that's kind of the game, the game of chicken in a sense that investors play with a stock like this. Now, Micron on their side, I think they're spending 250 billion to open up new facilities, like two new facilities, one in Arizona. I can't remember where the other one is, uh, but two new facilities over the next 12 months and or at least one of them is opening within the next 12 months. But they're spending a lot. And you know what the funny thing about that is? They're going to try to bring a lot in more capacity online for their memory chips, right? But some of this price increase like quarter over quarter, this is not because they're increasing capacity. It's because there's not enough capacity. There's a shortage. So they can increase price by 20% every quarter because there's a shortage. Now, if you're spending 250 billion to bring on a lot more capacity, are you going to sacrifice your pricing power and kind of crash your own stock? I don't know. But for now, I mean, this is crazy for Micron. 38 billion net income in the quarter. We're going to need to continue to see these AI stocks uh put up the same type of numbers as we look into Q4. So the base case expectation for Q4, you know, we you'd expect the rally to continue, the bull market to continue. If it doesn't, that'd be something that, you know, you'd be able to see live and adjust if needed. Um, that's Q4. All right, thanks for joining us, of course. Look forward to talking to you soon.

Key Takeaways

• With the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.3%, Corey Hinkle says interest rates need to at least stop rising during Q4 for the market to keep moving higher.

• Oil prices and the Middle East conflict are the second hurdle. Corey wants to see moderating oil prices and clearer progress, and calls continued escalation a big headwind.

• He expects political pressure for progress in the Middle East to build in Q4. This is his opinion, not a forecast of any outcome.

• Midterm elections can act as a clearing event, and November and December have historically been strong months, ending with the Santa Claus rally. Seasonal patterns do not repeat on schedule.

• Micron's latest quarter, with revenue of about $54 billion, shows what the AI trade needs from other companies. Corey's base case is that the rally continues, and he says that if it does not, investors would see it live and could adjust.

What Do Interest Rates Need to Do in Q4?

Corey's first condition for a healthy fourth quarter is that rates stop climbing. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.3% and the S&P 500 slightly lower on the day as yields moved up, he says rates need to at least stop going higher at some point in Q4. If yields keep rising, even slowly, through the whole quarter, he calls that really tough for stocks. Corey lays this out at (0:52).

Better-than-expected inflation data would help, he adds, but regardless of other news, he wants to see rates chill out. Higher yields also affect savers and retirees, since they change what bonds and cash can pay. Our 12-month market outlook covers how the firm is thinking about inflation and policy uncertainty.

How Could Oil and the Middle East Affect the Market?

Oil is the second item on Corey's list. Oil was heading higher on the day, and he says the market needs clarity on the conflict in the Middle East, a light at the end of the tunnel, and moderating oil prices if stocks are to keep rising. He discusses oil at (1:32).

Interest rates and oil prices sometimes move together, and Corey says both will have to cooperate. Continued pressure or further escalation in the region would be a really big headwind in Q4. Energy prices feed into inflation, which is one reason the two topics are linked.

Why Does Corey Expect Political Pressure for Progress?

Corey expects political pressure on the administration to make meaningful progress on the conflict to increase significantly in Q4. In his view, whatever room the administration felt it had to take its time will end quickly, and he expects an attempt at meaningful progress during the quarter. He shares this view at (2:13).

He describes this as something that would be in the administration's best interest if the market is to keep moving higher. This is one commentator's expectation about politics. Outcomes in geopolitical conflicts are uncertain, and a diplomatic push does not guarantee a resolution.

Could the Midterms and Q4 Seasonality Help?

Corey sees two possible supports: the midterm elections and the fourth quarter's seasonal pattern. He is clear he is not the expert on the political talking points, but he notes that elections can be clearing events, where the clouds part a little once they pass and investors may gain confidence. He covers this at (3:22).

On seasonality, he notes that Q4 tends to be a strong period, culminating in the Santa Claus rally at the end of December and the first few days of January. He says October is not typically the strong part, and that the wind has historically been at investors' backs in November and December. Seasonal tendencies are averages across many years, and individual years can look very different.

What Did Micron's Earnings Show About the AI Rally?

Corey points to Micron's report as an example of the numbers the AI rally needs to keep delivering. He cites quarterly revenue of about $54 billion, compared with $41 billion in the prior quarter and $11 billion a year earlier, and net income of roughly $38 billion. He walks through the figures at (4:35).

Even so, Micron's stock was down about 3% that day. Corey's point is that expectations are high: companies tied to AI need to deliver strong results over and over. This recap is a summary of Corey's commentary, not a view on any particular security.

What Does Anthropic Need to Deliver?

Corey says the AI rally in Q4 may also depend on a successful Anthropic IPO, with investors reacting very positively and Anthropic's revenue continuing to ramp. In his words, the company would probably need to grow revenue about tenfold over the next two to three years to fulfill commitments made to hyperscalers that are adding capacity. He raises this at (5:30).

These are Corey's estimates and views, not company guidance. IPO timing and results are uncertain, and new offerings can be volatile.

Is Micron Playing a Game of Chicken With the Market?

Corey describes investing in a company like Micron as a game of chicken: with a company valued at about $1.2 trillion that just reported roughly $38 billion of quarterly net income, investors often expect a big drop when conditions slow, and the question becomes how much profit can be earned before that happens. He frames the idea at (6:31).

He also notes that Micron is spending about $250 billion on new facilities, including one in Arizona. Recent price increases of around 20% per quarter, he says, come from a capacity shortage rather than from added capacity. So the question is whether new capacity will erode the company's pricing power. Corey says plainly, "I don't know." He concludes at (8:16) that the base case for Q4 is a continued rally, and that if it does not play out, investors could see it happening and adjust.

For long-term investors, the practical point is that scenarios like this are why diversification and a plan sized to your time horizon and risk capacity matter. Learn how the firm approaches this through its investment planning process, or review how rate and market risk may affect your retirement planning. To talk about your own situation, contact Ankerstar Wealth.

This recap is financial education, not investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and past market patterns do not predict future results. Do your own due diligence before acting on anything you hear or read here.

This article is general information, not personalized investment, tax, or legal advice. Your situation is specific to you — talk to a qualified professional before acting on anything here.

Frequently asked questions

What does the market need in Q4 2026?

According to Corey Hinkle, the market needs interest rates to stop climbing, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.3%, and oil prices to moderate with clearer progress in the Middle East. He also wants AI-related companies to keep delivering strong earnings. These are his views, and outcomes are uncertain.

Why do the midterm elections matter for investors?

Corey notes that midterm elections can be clearing events, where uncertainty lifts once they pass and investors may feel more confident. He says he is not the expert on the political talking points. History does not guarantee the same reaction this time.

Is the fourth quarter usually a strong period for stocks?

Corey says Q4 tends to be a strong period, with November and December historically stronger than October and a Santa Claus rally at the end of December and early January. Seasonal patterns are averages and do not guarantee results in any single year.

What were Micron's latest earnings?

Corey cites quarterly revenue of about $54 billion, up from $41 billion in the prior quarter and $11 billion a year earlier, with net income of roughly $38 billion. He says Micron's stock was down about 3% that day. This is a summary of his commentary and not a view on any security.

What is Corey's base case for Q4?

Corey's base case is that the rally and bull market continue through Q4. He adds that if they do not, investors would be able to see it as it happens and adjust if needed. This is an opinion for educational purposes and not a prediction or personalized advice.

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