Market Update

Nvidia's $150 Billion Buyback: Why Corey Hinkle Sees a Common Corporate Mistake

By Corey HinklePublished September 29, 2026

The short answer

Nvidia announced a 150 billion dollar increase to its share repurchase program, raising the remaining total to 235 billion. Corey Hinkle argues that spending windfall profits on buybacks is a common corporate mistake, citing FICO, Nike, and Lowe's as examples. These are his opinions for education, not a recommendation on any security.

Full video transcript

Nvidia announced the largest share buyback in history yesterday, and I'm going to show you in today's video why they're probably making a mistake. I'll give you 3 examples of companies who've done similar-ish things in the past, who are now regretting spending all that money on share buybacks, that they currently need for their businesses and the state that their businesses are in today. So I'll show you those. We'll also look at a market update just to see what else is going on out there. Before I begin, I must remind you, this is a financial education presentation. You must do your own due diligence before acting on anything you hear in this presentation. More disclaimer information can be found on Ankerstar Wealth.com. The opinions expressed are mine alone. We do have the S&P 500 flat on the day, you know, down 4 hundredths of a percent. Tech holding on. Some of that is due to Nvidia, which we'll talk quite a bit about in today's video. Elsewhere, you have bonds still continuing higher today. It's pretty shocking. Really, the most shocking part of it is not the 5.2% on the US 10-year. Again, we've talked about how historically that's not the craziest rate on the US 10-year. It is quite a bit different than the past 15 years. But for folks who've been around the mark around markets for, you know, 20, 30, 40 years. It's not going to be a shocking number to them. The shocking part is the speed that this has taken place. You're up about 50 basis points this month in September of 2026. So kind of a historic month from that perspective. And, you know, we'll see if it holds. It does seem like the bond market is screaming at the administration and our politicians at this point to make some changes either with the conflict in the Middle East, you know, the oil market problems that have been taking place. or maybe even a little bit with the government debt at this point. So it does seem like the market is sending a message. We'll see what the politicians do to, you know, to respond. But nonetheless, just very interesting in the speed is pretty wild. Still having oil very elevated at this point. And then you've seen a little bit of weakness in gold and silver. You know, some of that is if we're really going to rev the inflation engine, you know, and let that thing go. And I know the Federal Reserve raised interest rates once, but it seems like the market might be asking for more. But if we're really going to let the inflation train get out of control, ultimately that will be really bad for economies. And they're going to have to slow economies and damage economies to get the inflation under control, which ultimately would damage demand for gold and other precious metals, things like that. So, and then hey, let's check on crypto. Crypto up on the day. All right, yesterday, Nvidia announced $150 billion increase to their share repurchase program, raising the remaining total to $235 billion. They expect to execute the remaining program through fiscal year 2028. So let's just say over, or I don't know when Nvidia's fiscal year ends. Let's say they've got about 24 months. So they're going to be spending 10 billion a month on these share buybacks, which would be, you know, a few $100 million a day. Sorry. No, yeah, that would be a few $100 million a day buying Nvidia stock just from the company. First of all, what is a share buyback? A share buyback is Nvidia going into the open market, taking their money, buying stock like you and I do through our, you know, through our own investing platforms, brokerages. buying stock and then retiring the stock. So it disappears, goes away. Technically, if they were going to issue more stock later on, they would have to issue new. It would be like new shares, but the shares they're buying back are disappearing and going away. So you're shrinking the number of shares that are out there. which in theory increases the value. It definitely does increase like earnings per share, revenue per share, because there's just less shares. But you're decreasing the number of shares out there and then kind of making those shares appear more valuable, right? You're increasing demand and shrinking supply. So, that's what's going on with a buyback, and I'm going to show you how this is probably a problem. Well, first, let's look at Nvidia. What kind of share buybacks has Nvidia done in the past 10 years? Okay, in 2013, 100 million. 2014, we'll call it a billion. 2015, a billion. 2016, half a billion. 2017, we'll call it a billion, a little less. 2018, a billion. 2019, we'll say 1 billion. 2020, 2021, 2022, nothing. Well, that's weird. Nvidia's stock was trading for about $15 a share in 2022. We don't want to buy it back then. We want to buy it back now? It's $200 a share? Okay. So this is the problem with the way companies do share buybacks. And this happens time and time again. It's like... as predictable as when the sun is coming up. It's so predictable. But these companies will, during hard times, they'll struggle, and during good times, they'll just spend it all. So right now on Nvidia's balance sheet, I think they carry about 20 billion in cash. But Nvidia has signed, we've highlighted on the show. Nvidia has signed multiple large agreements. to not only guarantee demand for compute to companies like CoreWeave and others. So they're guaranteeing, they're backstopping the compute demand that CoreWeave needs and other companies need. They're also backstopping other debt commitments that other companies have needed. And they have about 20 billion on their balance sheet. Now, if Nvidia has, obviously they have windfall profits right now, and it might continue forever. They're kind of assuming that it will. That's kind of one of the mistakes that these companies make. They assume that the good times will go on forever. Actually, as Wealth Management folks, we see that. Sometimes. families will get like a big promotion or a good job and they'll sort of adjust up their lifestyle as if they've achieved like a new baseline level of success. And then like a layoff will come or something unfavorable will happen and they didn't really take the good times to prepare themselves for even the potential for bad times. So companies kind of use the same logic, right? Nvidia is acting like these windfall profits represent a new baseline level of success. And is it possible that they do? Sure, it's certainly possible. Is it the most likely outcome that Nvidia's AI rally windfall profits are a new baseline level, or will things moderate at some point in the future? It's most likely that things will moderate either down, sideways, or something like that in the future. Maybe competition increases, something like that. That would be kind of the baseline expectation. Well, NVIDIA is acting as if the baseline expectation is windfall profits forever. So here's what they've done. 2023, 2024, $10 billion of buybacks each year. Now that the stock is fully valued, the stock hasn't gone far in the past two years. Now they've spent $70 billion in the past two years, and they're going to spend probably 120 billion each of the next two years. Yeah, 120 billion for each of the next two years on these buybacks, which again, they have 20 billion on their balance sheet. If they just saved, call it 150 billion for a rainy day, that would put them as like the second richest company in the world. And they certainly have the money to do it. Let's look at a couple of companies who have made this mistake. FICO. You might be familiar with FICO is going through a massive crash right now. They had monopolistic powers. They abused those monopolistic powers. Had they not abused their monopolistic powers, they probably, the stock would have been like, eh, wouldn't have gone as high, but it wouldn't be crashing the way it is right now. Well, they abused their monopoly, sort of calling themselves out, and now they are a target for lots of other, not only government agencies, but companies as well. And the company is worth now only 9 billion. I think it was worth about 40 billion. Now the company is worth 9 billion. Well, let's see what they've done. Let's just say from 2013 Out to 2018, that's about a billion. From 2019 to 2021, that's like a billion and a half or so. So let's call that 2 1/2 billion. Okay, 22 to 2, that takes them out to 3 1/2 billion. 2023 gets them up to 4 billion. 2024, 5 billion. 2025, 6 billion. The whole company is worth $9 billion today, but they spent $6 billion on buybacks over the past, you know, 13 years or so. Sure would be nice if they had that $6 billion today when the whole company is worth 9 billion, right? Well, actually, the company wouldn't be worth 9 billion if they had done that. The company would be worth more because they had either saved for a rainy day or used those funds to invest in the business something else. Nike, same problem. The whole company today is worth $50 billion, a little more. Over the past 10 years, we won't add them up, but Nike spent at least 30 billion on buybacks. And guess when they stopped their buybacks? They stopped their buybacks as soon as competition arrived and things got hard. Oh, now that the stock is cheap, we're not buying it back. Remember Nvidia did that in 2022? Nvidia didn't want to buy their stock when it was $15 in 2022. They want to buy it when it's 230 in 2026. Okay. Same with Nike. Nike doesn't want to buy their stock in 2026 when things have gotten hard and competition has increased. Nike wanted to buy their stock only during the good times. Here's the worst one. This is Lowe's. Yeah, this is maybe the worst one. Lowe's they were typically spending 3 billion a year. Do you remember the housing windfall profits in like 2021 and 2022 when the housing market was going crazy with low mortgage rates? What did Lowe's do? Lowe's not only took their windfall profits to buy back their own stock, Lowe's took on debt, like $20 billion of debt to buy back even more stock than they could actually afford to from their windfall profits. Well, now Lowe's doesn't have windfall profits. Now Lowe's has a floundering stock price, a stock that peaked at $280 a share. It's now down to $188 a share. Wouldn't you think, $187? Wouldn't you think that Lowe's should start buying back shares like during the hard times? when their stock is cheap. Well, Lowe's didn't want to do that. They wanted to only buy during the best of times. So here's the, this is the problem that companies make. They get like, and imagine you work for a company. Imagine you're in the C-suite, right? You're high up and the good times are rolling. People are laughing, giggling, high-fiving. Things are perfect. What are you going to do? Like, guys, let's buy this stock back. Let's pump it even more. Let's do that. But no one's usually there to make the hard decision of say, hey, wait, wait, guys, let's establish a rainy day fund here where we can be advantageous not only during the good times, but during the bad times too. So we'll see how this turns out for Nvidia, but it seems like Nvidia is making a common buyback mistake that many companies have made before and many companies will continue to make. Last thing on that real quick, if you're still with me, There is like an element of this where it sort of relates to politics. Have you ever seen that thing in politics where someone might only be in power for four years, right? So they'll kind of do short-term thinking. CEOs have that problem too. Now, not Jensen, it's his company. It's his baby.

Key Takeaways

• Nvidia announced a $150 billion increase to its share repurchase program, raising the remaining total to $235 billion, which the company expects to execute through fiscal year 2028.

• A buyback shrinks the number of shares outstanding, which raises per-share measures such as earnings per share. Corey's concern is what the cash could have done instead.

• Corey notes that Nvidia's repurchases were zero from 2020 to 2022, when the stock traded near $15 a share, and are rising sharply now that the price is far higher.

• He says FICO, Nike, and Lowe's each illustrate the risk of spending windfall profits on repurchases, and of stopping when conditions get harder.

• These are Corey's opinions for education. Buyback outcomes vary, and nothing here is a recommendation about any security.

What Did Markets Do Around the Nvidia Announcement?

The S&P 500 was roughly flat, down four hundredths of a percent, with technology holding up in part because of Nvidia. Bonds continued to move, and Corey calls the pace of the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield the striking part: the yield reached about 5.2%, up roughly 50 basis points in September 2026. He discusses the bond move at (1:22).

Corey reads the move as the bond market sending a message about the Middle East conflict, elevated oil prices, and government debt. He also notes some weakness in gold and silver, which he links to the possibility that stronger inflation forces the Fed to slow the economy. The Federal Reserve raised rates once, and he says the market may be asking for more. Crypto was higher on the day. Corey covers oil, metals, and the Fed at (2:45).

What Is a Share Buyback, and What Did Nvidia Announce?

A share buyback is a company using its own cash to purchase its stock on the open market and then retiring those shares, which reduces the number outstanding. Corey notes that this raises per-share figures such as earnings per share and revenue per share simply because there are fewer shares, and describes it as increasing demand while shrinking supply. He explains the mechanics at (4:08).

Nvidia announced a $150 billion increase to its repurchase program, bringing the remaining total to $235 billion, with execution expected through fiscal year 2028. Corey estimates that pace at roughly $10 billion a month, or a few hundred million dollars a day, if spread over about 24 months. That is his rough arithmetic, not a company figure.

Why Does the Timing of Nvidia's Buybacks Matter?

Corey shows that Nvidia repurchased roughly a billion dollars a year or less from 2013 through 2019, then nothing from 2020 through 2022. In 2022 the stock traded near $15 a share; he points out that the company is now willing to repurchase at around $200. He covers the history at (5:20).

His broader argument is that companies tend to struggle to spend during hard times and then spend freely during good times, which he calls predictable. Buying when a share price is high uses more cash to retire the same number of shares. Whether any repurchase proves wise depends on future results, which no one knows.

Why Does Corey Point to Nvidia's Balance Sheet?

Corey says Nvidia carries about $20 billion in cash while having signed large agreements that backstop demand for compute at companies such as CoreWeave, and other companies' debt commitments. He covers the balance sheet at (6:11). Cash spent on buybacks is not available for those commitments or for reserves.

He also draws a comparison from wealth management: a family that receives a big promotion may raise its lifestyle as if the higher income were a new baseline, then struggle after a layoff. In his view Nvidia is treating windfall profits as a new baseline. Corey says that is possible but that the most likely outcome is that results moderate, perhaps because competition increases (7:18).

How Large Could the Spending Become?

According to the figures Corey shows, Nvidia spent about $10 billion on repurchases in each of 2023 and 2024, roughly $70 billion over the past two years, and may spend about $120 billion in each of the next two years. The $120 billion figure is his estimate. He compares that with the roughly $20 billion in cash on the balance sheet. He walks through the numbers at (8:28).

Corey suggests that setting aside a very large reserve for uncertain periods is one alternative use of the money. This recap does not evaluate whether that alternative would be better. Any capital allocation choice carries trade-offs, and the results of each remain uncertain.

What Do FICO, Nike, and Lowe's Illustrate?

Corey offers three companies as examples of repurchases that look different after conditions changed. For FICO, he says the company is now worth about $9 billion, down from about $40 billion, after spending roughly $6 billion on buybacks over about 13 years. For Nike, he says the company is worth about $50 billion after spending at least $30 billion on repurchases over 10 years, and that it stopped when competition arrived. Corey covers FICO and Nike at (9:13).

For Lowe's, he says the company typically spent about $3 billion a year, then borrowed around $20 billion to repurchase more stock during the housing windfall of 2021 and 2022. He notes the shares peaked at about $280 and were near $188 at the time of recording, and that Lowe's did not repurchase when the stock was cheaper. He covers Lowe's at (11:47). These are Corey's characterizations, stated as of September 29, 2026, and this recap does not verify or endorse them.

Do Incentives and Short-Term Thinking Play a Role?

Corey suggests that in a strong period, leaders can feel pressure to keep pushing the stock higher, and that few people in the room advocate for a rainy-day fund that would help in both good and bad times. He explains that view at (12:39).

He closes by comparing it to politics, where someone in power for a short term may think short term. He says CEOs can have the same problem, though not Nvidia's Jensen Huang, whose company it is. Incentives can influence capital decisions, but they do not make any single decision right or wrong.

Put Market Context in Service of the Plan

Corporate capital-allocation decisions can affect the companies inside a portfolio, but they are only one factor in a broader review. Concentration, time horizon, liquidity needs, and risk capacity usually matter more to a household's outcome than any single company's buyback program.

Explore the firm's investment planning process, see how it thinks about rates and inflation in the 12-month market outlook, or contact Ankerstar Wealth to discuss your own situation. This recap is financial education, not investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Do your own due diligence before acting on anything you hear or read here.

This article is general information, not personalized investment, tax, or legal advice. Your situation is specific to you — talk to a qualified professional before acting on anything here.

Frequently asked questions

What did Nvidia announce about its share buyback?

Nvidia announced a $150 billion increase to its share repurchase program, raising the remaining total to $235 billion. Corey Hinkle says the company expects to execute the remaining program through fiscal year 2028.

What is a share buyback?

A share buyback is when a company uses its own cash to purchase its stock on the open market and retires the shares. Fewer shares outstanding raises per-share measures such as earnings per share, though the cash used is no longer available for other purposes.

Why does Corey Hinkle think Nvidia's buyback may be a mistake?

Corey argues that Nvidia is treating windfall profits as a permanent baseline and is spending heavily at a high share price after repurchasing nothing from 2020 to 2022. He also points to a roughly $20 billion cash balance alongside large commitments to other companies. This is his opinion, and outcomes are uncertain.

What did the 10-year Treasury yield do in September 2026?

According to the video, the 10-year Treasury yield reached about 5.2%, up roughly 50 basis points during September 2026. Corey says the speed of the move, rather than the level, is what stands out.

What does Corey suggest companies do instead of buying back stock at the top?

Corey suggests establishing a rainy-day fund so a company can be opportunistic in both good and bad times, or investing in the business. This is a general educational view, not advice about any specific company.

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