Market Update

Meta's AI Spending Guidance, Tesla's Earnings, and Nvidia CEO Comments

By Corey HinklePublished October 22, 2026

The short answer

On October 22, 2026, Corey Hinkle covered Tesla's earnings, Meta's updated AI spending guidance, and comments from Nvidia's CEO that he says unsettled AI infrastructure stocks, along with a market check on rates and oil. These are opinions in a financial education presentation, not forecasts or advice.

Full video transcript

[0:09] Let's get into Tesla's earnings, Meta's earnings, something that Nvidia's CEO said that is spooking markets today, and specifically the AI trade, and then a market update as well. Some really interesting news day, and I'm excited to go through some of this with you. Before I begin, I must remind you, this is a financial education presentation. You must do your own due diligence before acting on anything you hear in this presentation. [0:31] More disclaimer information can be found on Ankerstar Wealth.com. The opinions expressed are mine alone. Let's refresh here. We do have the S&P 500 down just under 1%. So definitely some things getting hit. Not all parts of the market, though, a little more heavily weighted toward the AI trade. You got your NASDAQ and your NASDAQ 100. [0:50] leading the way lower. But meanwhile, you know, the Russell, so your small caps and your Dow Jones group is a little more stable. Now, why would the small caps be holding more stable? Look at the tenure here. Rates down close to 3%, not quite, but approaching 3%. [1:10] still hovering above 5% on the 10-year, but about a 3% drop from where it was yesterday. And smaller companies really like cheaper access to capital, which is benefiting those stock prices. So go look at some of your smaller companies in your portfolio and they might be [1:29] rejoicing with those bond yields going lower. However, you do have an offset benefit there because oil is continuing higher in a very strong way today with it looks like President Trump saying no negotiations with Iran right now. All right. And again, you know, that's going to [1:48] At this point, I would just assume that oil prices are going to be higher for much longer. You know, this disruption is going on for a long time at this point. You've got, of course, the national backup supplies and things globally that have been depressed as a result of this. [2:08] you know, diesel supplies been depressed. There's lots of kind of effects that they aren't going to resolve with a deal. So I think we're beyond a deal, and I don't even know that a deal matters at this point. I just think you expect energy prices should be [2:27] higher for the medium term at this point at the lease. So you just kind of accept that and move on with it for what it is. And again, I don't think the public markets are waiting around for some deal to go on. I think they've moved past that and just accepted it for what it is. All right, now what did Nvidia's CEO say? [2:46] that is spooking all of the, what they call the neo clouds. These are your core weave or core weave equivalent type companies. These are just your data center build out type companies. He said that, and I don't, and you know, remember this, if you were NVIDIA's CEO, [3:08] You're not spending much time at your headquarters. What you're doing is traveling around the world. He said this in Germany. You're traveling around the world. You are a champion for data centers, right? Those are your customers. So you're out basically pitching, selling, and marketing your company, NVIDIA, [7:04] Here's the two, the good things about Tesla. Tesla is an innovative company. Tesla has the most shareholder-friendly CEO of all time that I've ever seen. And Tesla has potential for long-term growth and then maybe even kind of a [7:24] a premium, a valuation premium for a merger with SpaceX. So these are all things that Tesla has as benefits to their company. There's a couple of things that are negatives for Tesla. One is just simply the valuation. In this quarter, [7:43] Tesla did net income, true net income of $700 million. Now, of course, that's down a bunch, but you could see over the last year, they're maybe 600, 700, 1 billion. They're doing net. This is who they are. They do net income of a billion dollars or less. [8:03] Or a tiny bit more, quarter by quarter by quarter, you can go look. [8:09] Well, revenue is not growing. So you don't have to worry about that. That's not happening. You go look at car deliveries. Going back, they show it here for years. These are vehicle deliveries on a trailing 12-month basis. So this is getting you data going all the way back to 2022. You know, you peaked long ago. [8:30] a long ago peak. And your net income, look at that blue line here, just kind of heading lower and lower and lower. Now, of course, some of that is related to CapEx and development. And we'll talk about CapEx in a minute as it relates to AI, which Tesla does invest in. But this is who they are. [8:50] And they do have the potential for the robotaxi and the full self-driving and the Optimus robot. They have all that. But one of the problems is the reality of their situation is that they have a valuation, a massive valuation premium put on their company. So it's like by the time the [9:10] Optimus robot or the self-driving starts to increase this net income, is that how much of that is already priced in at a $1.5 trillion company? Do you know another company who did $700 million of net income this quarter who is also going through bad times? [9:29] That's Nike. Nike actually did about the same net income as Tesla. You know, Tesla's worth 1 1/2 trillion and Nike's worth 50 billion. So you see, you know, there is a massive valuation premium here. Now, Nike's not about to release robots or full self-driving shoes and something like that. [9:52] But Nike is just a real company, as Tesla is. And the reality of their situations is they're both doing $700 million of net income right now. And for both of them, net income is shrinking right now. So Tesla, it's an interesting company. One thing they did note, [10:10] in their earnings is that they are not increasing capital expenditures related to AI from here. And then we got another company say the same thing. Here's Meta. And I'll spare you Meta's earnings here. We'll come back to it in a second. Here's what Meta had to say. [10:30] And this is also filtering through to cold water being thrown on the AI Riley just for today. They came out and said... [10:38] We are still developing our budget and capacity. Nope, that's not the line here. We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures, including principal payments and finance leases, to be in the range of 135 to 145 billion, narrowed from 130 to 145 billion in the prior quarter. Up until now, [10:57] Meta, Tesla, Google, Amazon, all these companies had been increasing their AI related capital expenditures every quarter. So they were announcing it was 120, now it's 130. It was 130, now it's 150. They were increasing every quarter. This is the first quarter where Meta said, nope, [11:18] we're going to hold the line. We are not going to increase our capital expenditures from this point, you know, for this year and then presumably maybe even beyond that. So that's a really interesting thing. Now, when you go think about how that, what does that mean to AI stocks? [11:37] via Micron, Seagate, you know, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom. It means that... [11:45] Well, shoot, those companies aren't going to get massive revenue growth, not from Meta, at least. Meta's already kind of reached their ceiling for at least for this year, maybe even into next year. So those AI companies need those ceiling to continue higher, you know, to justify some of the gains that those stocks have seen. [12:07] And Meta's come out and say, no, not from us. We're not going higher on our CapEx. Now, this is kind of good for Meta. Meta has some other issues, but also, I mean, look, where's their daily active people, 3.64 billion. [12:27] Meta is an irreplaceable asset. Meta is a massively valuable asset. And at the right price, you absolutely would want to own this company. You know, we're not here to talk about valuations on Meta today. Of course, they are spending A lot. Look at their costs. You know, last year, 30 billion this year, 52 billion almost in the quarter. [12:47] because of the AI development, but they do have the MetaMuse, which they mentioned they have, I think, two and a half million people using it daily for tasks that extend into shopping and things like that. So MetaMuse, that's their AI agent app, growing quickly and could eventually justify these expenses, but [13:08] But man, oh man, the expenses are very intense for Meta's AI development, and they're kind of holding the line here. Very interesting day. Let's check one back one last time. You know, the S&P 500, it should probably be a red day today. [13:26] I would struggle to see where a large benefit would come from other than if, oh, less thing on bonds. Why would bonds be down while the tech stocks are down? [13:39] One of the reasons that bond yields had been increasing was that the AI related bond issuance and capital raising that Jensen was talking about, it was so strong that it was actually drowning out some of the government's debt related needs. [13:59] And if Jensen's coming out and saying they're having trouble raising money, aka they're not going to be raising as much money, that is a green light for bonds to say, okay, there's going to be less demand for debt related to there's just not enough capital for what they want. [14:22] So there will be a reduction in debt issuance perceivably, right? These things are reacting in live time. And as a result, bond yields come in a bit. So that's good for some small caps, maybe good for some dividend stocks. But you know, the tech stocks, as we mentioned, they never cared about interest rates anyway, right? They're just trying to

Key Takeaways

• Corey describes a day when the broad market was lower, with AI-related stocks hit harder while smaller companies held up better, and bond yields eased from the prior day.

• He says comments from Nvidia's CEO were unsettling to data center build-out companies, which he calls neo clouds, and that he reads them as a sign that raising money for AI projects may be harder than expected.

• Corey says Tesla's earnings highlight a gap between the company's current profits and the valuation placed on its future products, and he compares it with a much smaller company that reported similar profits.

• Meta narrowed its spending guidance for the year, which Corey describes as the first quarter in which a large AI spender did not raise its outlook. He explains why that matters to companies that sell to AI builders.

• These are Corey's opinions for education. They are not forecasts, and nothing here is a recommendation about any security.

What Did Today's Update Cover?

Corey opens by listing the day's topics: Tesla's earnings, Meta's earnings, a comment from Nvidia's CEO that he says is unsettling markets and the AI trade in particular, and a broader market update. He gives the standard reminder that the presentation is for financial education, that viewers should do their own due diligence, and that the opinions are his alone. He covers the introduction at (0:09) and (0:31).

He then describes a lower broad market, with the heaviest pressure in the technology-heavy indexes, while small companies and the Dow group held up better. Corey connects that to lower Treasury yields from the prior day, noting that smaller companies tend to benefit from cheaper access to capital. He suggests viewers look at the smaller companies in their own portfolios with that in mind. He covers the market check at (0:31), (0:50), and (1:10).

On energy, Corey says oil moved higher again after reports that there were no negotiations with Iran. His view is that supply disruptions, including depleted reserves and diesel supplies, will not be resolved by a deal alone, and that public markets have already moved past waiting for one. That is his opinion about market behavior, not a forecast of energy prices. He covers this at (1:29), (1:48), (2:08), and (2:27).

What Did Corey Say About Nvidia's CEO and the Neo Clouds?

Corey says a comment from Nvidia's CEO is what is unsettling the group of companies often called neo clouds, meaning CoreWeave and similar data center build-out businesses. He reminds viewers that the CEO of a large supplier spends much of the time traveling and promoting the company's customers and products, so remarks should be read with that role in mind. He covers this at (2:46) and (3:08).

This recap does not quote the CEO's full remarks. Corey's interpretation, which he returns to near the end of the video, is that the comments suggest raising capital for AI projects may be harder than the market had assumed. That is his reading, and the actual impact on any company is uncertain.

What Did Tesla's Earnings Show?

Corey begins with what he sees as Tesla's strengths: innovation, potential for long-term growth, and a possible premium tied to a merger with SpaceX. He then lists what he considers negatives, starting with valuation. In his reading, the company's quarterly profits have stayed within a fairly narrow range, vehicle deliveries peaked some time ago, and net income has trended lower, partly because of spending on development and AI. He covers this at (7:04), (7:24), (7:43), and (8:09).

He acknowledges the potential of robotaxis, full self-driving, and humanoid robots, and says the open question is how much of that potential is already reflected in the current price. To illustrate the gap between profits and valuation, he compares Tesla with Nike, saying the two reported similar quarterly net income while differing enormously in company size and market value, and that profits are shrinking at both. This is a comparison for discussion, not a recommendation about either company. He covers this at (8:30), (8:50), (9:10), (9:29), and (9:52).

Corey also notes that Tesla said it does not plan to increase its AI-related capital spending from here. He covers this at (10:10).

Why Did Meta's Spending Guidance Matter?

Corey reads Meta's updated outlook for 2026 capital spending, which narrowed the range from the prior quarter. He explains that Meta, Tesla, Google, Amazon, and other large companies had been raising their AI-related spending outlooks every quarter, and says this is the first quarter in which Meta chose to hold the line. He covers this at (10:30), (10:38), (10:57), and (11:18).

His point is that the companies supplying chips, memory, and related equipment to AI builders need spending to keep rising to support the stock gains they have seen, and a ceiling at a major customer, at least for this year and possibly next, is a headwind for them. That is his interpretation, and company spending plans can change. He covers this at (11:37), (11:45), and (12:07).

He also describes Meta as a very large platform with a fast-growing AI agent app, while noting that its AI-related costs have risen sharply and are, in his words, very intense. He says the app could eventually help justify those expenses, and that the day's discussion was not about Meta's valuation. This is not a statement about whether any investment is appropriate. He covers this at (12:27), (12:47), and (13:08).

Why Were Bond Yields Lower While Tech Stocks Fell?

Corey says the stock market might have been expected to look worse than it did, and asks why bonds would rally while technology stocks fell. His explanation is that part of the earlier rise in yields came from heavy AI-related borrowing, which competed with the government's own financing needs. If AI companies raise less debt, he reasons, there may be less supply of new debt, and yields could ease. He covers this at (13:08), (13:26), (13:39), and (13:59).

He adds that this could help some small companies and some dividend-paying stocks, while technology stocks, in his words, have not been focused on interest rates. These markets react in real time, and one day's move is limited evidence of a trend. He covers this at (14:22).

CHAPTER 14: SYNTHESIS

The common thread is how much the market's mood can depend on a handful of large spenders. When the biggest buyers of AI infrastructure signal that their spending may be leveling off, or that funding may be harder to find, the companies that sell to them can be affected even though nothing about their own business changed that day. Corey's discipline is to separate what a company reported from what investors infer from it, and to ask how much of a company's future is already reflected in its price.

A durable plan does not depend on any single earnings report, executive comment, or spending forecast. Concentration in a few related holdings may increase risk, and one day's reaction is not a reason to change course. Diversification and a written plan may help manage that risk, though neither can eliminate the possibility of loss.

Educational Disclaimer

This market update is a financial education presentation. It is not personalized investment advice, and it does not recommend any security, company, or strategy. Do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read or hear here. The opinions expressed are Corey's alone, and investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. More disclaimer information is available on the Disclosures page.

Put Market Context in Service of Your Plan

Earnings season headlines are most useful when they prompt better planning questions, such as how much of a portfolio depends on a single theme, how concentrated positions are handled for taxes, and how a long time horizon fits current risk.

Explore the firm's investment planning approach, or contact Ankerstar Wealth to discuss how these themes relate to your own planning questions. Any decision should reflect individual circumstances and a full review of risks, taxes, and trade-offs.

This article is general information, not personalized investment, tax, or legal advice. Your situation is specific to you — talk to a qualified professional before acting on anything here.

Frequently asked questions

What did Corey say about Meta's AI spending?

Corey said Meta narrowed its 2026 spending outlook, which he described as the first quarter in which a large AI spender held the line instead of raising its guidance. He explained why that may matter to companies that sell to AI builders. That is his interpretation, and company plans can change.

Why did Corey compare Tesla with Nike?

Corey used the comparison to illustrate the gap between a company's current profits and the valuation placed on its future products. He said the two companies reported similar quarterly net income but differ greatly in size and market value. It is an illustration, not a recommendation about either company.

Why did Corey say bond yields moved lower?

Corey reasoned that if AI companies find it harder to raise money, there may be less new debt competing with government borrowing, which could ease yields. He also noted that smaller companies tend to benefit from cheaper access to capital. This is his explanation of one day's move, not a prediction.

Does this update recommend buying or selling any company?

No. The update is educational commentary and reflects Corey's opinions as of the recording. Whether any investment is appropriate depends on an individual's goals, finances, time horizon, tax situation, and tolerance for loss.

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