Market Update

The Chart AI Bulls Are Scared Of

By Corey HinklePublished October 19, 2026

The short answer

Corey Hinkle's October 19 update asks whether recent semiconductor stock behavior resembles an earlier technology buildout cycle from 2000. He presents the comparison as a pattern to monitor, not a forecast. The update also touches on a market bounce, energy supply coordination, and why infrastructure limits can matter to AI themes.

Full video transcript

[0:09] We have highlighted on this show that the key to this bull market is not to do with oil or interest rates or any geopolitical conflict. It is simply the health of the AI rally, the health of Nvidia's stock price and so on. I've got probably the most important AI related chart [0:32] in the world to show you today and today's show. And it's something you need to be aware of because it actually does imply that, you know, something we'll know a lot in the next two months about the health of the AI rally. I'll show you exactly what that is. We will also look at a market update. [0:52] update to kind of see what else is going on out there. And we'll check in on interest rates and oil. Again, it's just not our take that that is the most important thing moving markets today. We're more on the AI side at this point from where we sit. And yeah, before I begin, I must remind us this is a financial education presentation. Must your own due diligence for acting on anything you hear in this presentation. More disclaimer information can be found on anchor steveankerstargmailcom. [1:15] The opinions Express are mine alone. The S&P 500 is there, up about 3/4 of a percent being led higher by a big bounce in those tech stocks. And some of the semiconductor stocks were down like 9 days in a row. So a big healthy bounce there is to be expected. What it means going forward [1:36] You know, you really don't know. There's quite a bit of other information to take from this. If we go check out interest rates, still far off the highs, but not softening today. And then oil prices, [1:54] very close to the highs, but down just a little bit today. So there is some news out that there's trying to be more coordination to continue getting energy resources out, not only out of the Strait of Hormuz, but even coordinating some diesel stuff other places around the world. [2:15] I can't speak to how viable those alternative options will be. I just know that for today, the oil market is responding kind of positively to that and sitting prices down just a bit. All right, if you go look at the S&P 500, we do have our semiconductor group of stocks and AI [2:36] infrastructure group of stocks carrying higher today along with Amazon. Shout out Amazon. [2:43] That's kind of where the strength is today. Now, if we go look at the most important chart that I mentioned, so I'm going to bounce back and forth. You tell me. This is SMH in 2026, Cisco 2000. Semiconductor Index 2000. [3:02] SMH, Cisco. SMH, Cisco. Do you see the similarities there between these charts? Now, if we take these Cisco and semiconductor analog from 2000 and apply it to today, 2026, what could possibly be going on here? [3:24] The market was in 2000, they were excited about the expansion of the internet and folks using the internet and people transitioning their business models from brick and mortar over to internet-based business models. [3:41] And of course, in today's world, people are kind of doing the same thing, but for AI. So people are building out AI-related capacity. People are transitioning businesses from whatever internet-based businesses they're using to then AI-based businesses. The strength of the internet is undeniable. [4:01] The strength of AI is undeniable. That's never really the question in something like this. It's an infrastructure hang up and a build out hang up could be related to timing of orders, could be related to electricity capacity, could be related to debt and funding. There's a few different ways that [4:22] these stories can kind of get hampered. But nonetheless, the price action seems to be telling a similar story, right? And then of course, if you weren't with us last Monday, in a typical like a bubble thing, what you get [4:40] is quiet accumulation, consensus accumulation, and then you blow off top. If we take the true Cisco analog, which seems very close to SMH today, now of course, remember, Nvidia is hanging in there really, really tough. So we haven't seen any, you don't need to worry until anything happens to Nvidia. And again, we've never said that something is destined to happen to Nvidia. [5:03] What we're really saying is the opposite today. We're saying that this is what you don't want to turn into. So SMH, it looks the exact same as Cisco did in 2000 right now. We don't want it to turn into Cisco from 2000. So we need SMH to continue rallying in the next two months. And I'll show you why two months. [5:24] Cisco, you peaked in March and you started breaking down there in September. So that's going to be six months. I'm going over to the semiconductor index. This is what year? 2000. You peaked in March. [5:43] and you actually start breaking down in September. So six months, and where are we at in SMH? You peaked in June, so you should start to break down. If it's the same, if the analog holds true, you start to break down in December. Now, we don't want that. We want SMH to carry on higher from here. [6:03] to continue this bull market. But, you know, if you do look back, if you look at like socks, it looks like you got one big push of a big push right at the end of like, I don't even know, what is that? 20%? [6:23] 25% or something? That's crazy. So we could get, that's a big move. 25% is a big move. You could get, you know, a 25% move on SMH then if it was to match up perfectly like that. We want SMH to continue rallying from here. [6:45] for the health of the overall bull market. If the analog were to hold true and things were to start to break down, well, then in that case, you know, you'd be looking out in December as being truly matched up with that six month analog of Cisco and SOX from the year 2000. [7:04] All right, two stocks did seem to finally break, though. Two more AI stocks seemed to break last week. Lamb Research. So that one's gone. It's trying to bounce a little bit today, but it hasn't fixed anything. And then Seagate. Seagate seemed to have broken last week as well. You know, we'll see. We've been losing more and more. [7:24] players on the AI team. We highlighted others last week. Hey, that's all I've got for you today. Thank you so much for joining us. What do you think? What's going to happen in the next two months? Are we going to buck the trend and break out higher? History would like that, right? Because certainly I'm not the only person who's found some of these correlations and these similarities. [7:48] So history likes to throw a wrench into things. History also likes to repeat in a way that kind of taunts people too. So it's anybody's best guess, but I think we'll know a lot more by the end of this calendar year. So I'm excited about that because [8:07] Yeah, that's just, that's going to be a key ingredient for the overall bull market. Hey, thanks for joining us. Of course, look forward to talking to you soon.

Key Takeaways

• In Corey's opinion, the health of the AI-related rally matters more to the overall market right now than interest rates, oil, or geopolitical headlines.

• He compares recent chart patterns in semiconductor stocks with a technology-infrastructure cycle from 2000, and he says the similarities are notable but not a prediction.

• Corey says the long-term strength of AI is not the question. Infrastructure build-out, order timing, electricity capacity, and funding are the places a story like this can get hampered.

• Bubble-style patterns have often moved through quiet accumulation, broad participation, and then a blow-off phase. Corey says he is not claiming that is destined to happen now.

• Two more AI-related stocks appeared to break below trend lines last week. Corey says the group of strong participants has been getting smaller.

What Is Driving the Focus on AI, and What About Rates and Oil?

Corey opens by repeating a view he has shared on earlier shows: in his opinion, the key to this bull market is the health of the AI rally, not oil, interest rates, or a geopolitical conflict. He says the update will look at one chart he considers especially important, then check the broader market, interest rates, and oil. He covers the opening at (0:09).

On the day of the recording, the broad index was higher, led by a rebound in technology after a stretch of weakness in semiconductor stocks. Corey says what that means going forward is unknown. He describes interest rates as still below their earlier highs but not softening that day, and oil as staying near its recent highs while easing slightly on reports of efforts to coordinate energy supplies out of the Strait of Hormuz and other regions. He says he cannot speak to how workable those alternatives will be. He covers the market overview at (1:15) and energy at (1:54).

What Is the Chart Comparison With 2000?

Corey switches between a recent chart of a semiconductor fund and charts from 2000 of a leading internet-infrastructure company and a semiconductor index, asking viewers whether they see similarities in the shapes. He then asks what the earlier pattern could imply if it were applied to today. He covers the comparison at (2:43).

A chart analog is a way of looking for a familiar shape in past data. It can be a useful prompt for questions, but it is not evidence that the same outcome will follow. Different companies, economic conditions, and interest rates can produce different results, and the two periods may separate at any time.

Why Do Infrastructure Limits and Bubble Patterns Matter?

Corey explains that in 2000, investors were excited about the internet and about businesses moving from physical to internet-based models, and that today the same kind of shift is under way for AI. In his view, the strength of both technologies is undeniable. The risk he points to is a build-out problem, which could involve the timing of orders, electricity capacity, or debt and funding. He covers this at (3:24) and (4:01).

He also reviews the stages he says are typical of a bubble: quiet accumulation, consensus accumulation, and then a blow-off top. Corey notes that the largest AI-related companies have so far held up, and he says he is not claiming that anything is destined to happen to them. His point is that this is a pattern he would not want to see repeated. He covers the stages at (4:22) and (5:03).

What Did Corey Say About Timing and Weakening Stocks?

Corey notes that in the 2000 cycle the move from peak to breakdown unfolded over roughly six months, and he says he is watching whether today's group behaves in a similar way. He is clear that this is an observation about a historical comparison and not a forecast, and he acknowledges that history can break a pattern as easily as repeat it. He covers the timeline at (5:24).

Near the end, he says two more AI-related stocks appeared to break below their trend lines the previous week. One was trying to bounce but had not repaired its chart. He says the group of strong AI participants has been shrinking, and he invites viewers to share their views. He covers this at (7:04) and the closing at (7:24). Those are his observations as of the recording, not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

CHAPTER 14: SYNTHESIS

The common thread is that a popular theme can look healthy at the index level while its underlying parts weaken, and that comparing today's charts with a past cycle is a way to ask better questions rather than a way to know the answer. Corey's discipline is to show the pattern, state what he would want to see, and acknowledge that the outcome is uncertain.

A durable plan is built around goals, liquidity needs, time horizon, and the ability to accept volatility, so that it does not depend on one theme or one historical comparison proving right. Diversification may help reduce reliance on a narrow group of holdings, but it cannot eliminate losses.

Educational Disclaimer

This market update is a financial education presentation. It is not personalized investment advice, and it does not recommend any security or strategy. Do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read or hear here. The opinions expressed are Corey's alone, and investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. More disclaimer information is available on the Disclosures page.

Put Market Context in Service of Your Plan

Market commentary is most useful when it prompts better planning questions, such as how concentrated a portfolio is in one theme, how much cash is set aside for near-term needs, and how each account fits a broader strategy.

Explore the firm's investment planning process or its financial planning services, or contact Ankerstar Wealth to discuss how these themes relate to your planning questions. Any decision should reflect individual circumstances and a full review of risks and trade-offs.

This article is general information, not personalized investment, tax, or legal advice. Your situation is specific to you — talk to a qualified professional before acting on anything here.

Frequently asked questions

What is a chart analog in investing?

A chart analog compares the shape of a current price chart with a past period that looked similar. Some investors use it to frame questions about what might happen next. It does not predict future results, because conditions differ between periods and the two patterns can diverge at any time.

Why can infrastructure limits matter for a technology theme?

A new technology often depends on physical capacity such as equipment, electricity, and financing. If orders are delayed, power is limited, or funding becomes harder to obtain, the pace of the build-out can slow even when demand for the technology remains strong.

Why do some investors watch market breadth during a rally?

Breadth describes how many companies are participating in a move. When fewer stocks hold up, an index can depend on a smaller group, which may increase concentration risk. Breadth is one input and does not predict what comes next.

Does this update recommend any investment change?

No. The update is educational commentary and reflects Corey's opinions as of the recording. Whether any change is appropriate depends on an individual's goals, time horizon, liquidity needs, tax situation, and tolerance for loss.

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